32 Teams in 32 Days: Falcons Counting on Michael Penix Jr. to End Playoff Drought

Very few teams have perfected mediocrity like the Atlanta Falcons. 

The Falcons have missed the postseason in each of the past seven seasons, winning exactly seven or eight games six times. Atlanta has tried almost everything to remedy the situation, whether paying up in free agency, making big moves in the draft, going young, going old, etc. Nothing has worked.

Going into 2025, the Falcons are banking on second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a trio of young weapons—running back Bijan Robinson, receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts—to challenge for the NFC South and potentially making the playoffs for the first time since Matt Ryan led them there in ’17.

What’s at stake this season: Getting back in the mix

Despite the NFC South being wide open the past few seasons, the Falcons have continuously chased the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lost the race.

Atlanta needs to leapfrog its rivals from Tampa, starting with Penix playing like a first-round choice. Entering this summer, Penix is the clear starter and has good talent around him, but the defense could be an issue. The group finished 31st in sacks and a middling 19th in yards per play against last season. For coach Raheem Morris, who made his bones as a defensive coordinator, those figures must improve to give Penix and the team the best chance at success. 

To that end, Atlanta made a pair of first-round picks in April, landing edge rushers Jalon Walker from Georgia and James Pearce Jr. from Tennessee. Both are expected to play ample snaps immediately in the hopes of jumpstarting what has been a long-dormant pass rush. 

If the Falcons can get significant contributions from their first- and second-year players on both sides of the ball, there’s no reason they can’t challenge the Buccaneers for supremacy in the NFC South.

Biggest question going into training camp: What does Penix look like?

Penix started three games to end the 2024 season and did decently, throwing for 737 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions while completing just 58% of his attempts. In those games, Atlanta blew out the Giants, then lost a pair of overtime contests to the Commanders and Panthers. The Falcons hope to see him improve on those numbers, especially considering he’s 25 years old and because Atlanta benched Kirk Cousins just 14 games into a four-year, $180 million deal for him. 

If Penix comes into the starting job and plays well, the Falcons could be a playoff team. If not, Atlanta will be staring at another wasted year with questions abound.

Sources are saying: Penix

“[Penix] gives them an NFL arm that’s capable of attacking all levels and all areas of the field from the pocket. It’s yet to be seen how comfortable that pocket is for him over 17 games.” —NFC personnel man on what Penix gives the Falcons

Breakout player candidate/X-factor: Kyle Pitts, TE

Pitts looked like a sure star after topping 1,000 yards as a rookie, but he’s failed to hit that plateau since. Inconsistency, bad quarterback play, a change in systems and injuries have taken their toll, and now the 2020 top-five pick could be playing his last year in Atlanta. If Pitts wants to stay, he’ll likely need to have his best season since his aforementioned rookie campaign.

Head coach-quarterback ranking: 29

Morris was an underwhelming coach with the Buccaneers and now with the Falcons. It’s hard to see him suddenly becoming one of the best in the business, currently sporting a 29–47 record. Penix is an unknown with only three starts, but the second-year quarterback looked the part of an ascending talent in those limited opportunities. 

Fantasy pick: Penix

Penix will open this season as the starting quarterback in what figures to be an explosive Falcons offense. He has a solid offensive line and an array of weapons, including Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Fantasy fans saw a glimpse of his upside in his final start of his rookie season, as he threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to the Panthers. He has sleeper potential as a late-round pick. —Michael Fabiano

Best bet: Falcons to make the playoffs (+155) via DraftKings

A lot is working in the favor of the Falcons. We know they have the offensive weapons to put up points between London, Robinson and Darnell Mooney. The jury is still out on Penix after a promising beginning to his career last season. After spending draft capital in hopes of fixing the pass rush, the Falcons should be able to take advantage of the fourth-easiest schedule in the league. They’ll be in the mix to make the playoffs. —Iain MacMillan

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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