Baltimore Orioles Must Prepare for Regression From Tomoyuki Sugano in Rotation

Not much has gone right for the Baltimore Orioles during the 2025 MLB regular season when it comes to the additions that were made this past winter.

Several players signed in free agency have provided the team very little positive production, especially on the mound.

Charlie Morton, while finding his way in recent starts, began his Orioles tenure so poorly that he was removed from the starting rotation after four starts.

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Alas, at least he remains on the roster. The same cannot be said about Kyle Gibson, who made four starts and was designated for assignment after some brutal performances.

The only starting pitcher addition the team made who has provided any positive results consistently is Tomoyuki Sugano.

The Nippon Baseball League star with the Yomiuri Giants came over to the MLB after agreeing to a one-year, $13 million deal with Baltimore.

Expected to be a back end innings eater, Sugano has been thrust into the ace’s role because of injuries and how ineffective the healthy starting pitchers have been.

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He has done a wonderful job in his rookie season, making 13 starts with a 3.23 ERA across 75.1 innings. The elite control he was known for in Japan has carried over, issuing only 12 walks with an excellent 1.4 BB/9 and 4.0% walk rate.

“The aforementioned Sugano is the only starter that's made four or more starts for the O's this season that has an ERA under 4.46,” wrote Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report.

However, there are reasons for the Orioles to be concerned that regression is on the horizon for hte veteran righty.

His xERA is 4.58, which is in the 25th percentile in baseball and bottom 10% of the MLB. Lacking the ability to strike people out consistently with a whiff rate of 16.9%, he relied heavily on batters making soft contact and chasing.

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A 30.4% chase rate is above-average, but his FIP of 4.58 also hints that his low ERA is a bit of a mirage.

Sugano can be serviceable still with his arsenal and those numbers, but the numbers won’t be as productive as they have been to this point based on the underlying metrics.

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