Discount the Twins at Your Own Risk

Anyone who has been a Minnesota Twins fan for the past 20 or so years has grown accustomed to being let down. Since the start of the 21st century, the Twins have made the postseason 10 times and won just two series. Minnesota has captured the American League Central nine times since 2002, and won 90 or more games six times in that span. The Twins notched 101 victories in 2019—one shy of a franchise record—then were swept by the New York Yankees in the ALDS as part of what would become an 18-game postseason losing streak that spanned 19 years.

So while this is an organization that has had plenty of success, disappointing finishes have become the norm. Last year’s squad got an early jump on the letdown by dropping 27 of its last 39 games to miss the playoffs completely. After a quiet offseason, Minnesota didn’t hear the 2025 starting gun and stumbled to a 13–20 start. In the parlance of our times, the vibes were bleak, and showing little sign of improving.

But fortunes can change quickly in this game, and did they ever for the Twins.

Minnesota ripped off a 13-game win streak out of nowhere to jump back into the division hunt and defibrillate its season. Before the start of the streak, FanGraphs gave the Twins a 29.2% chance to make the playoffs (down from 55.5% on Opening Day). After their 13th win, that number was all the way up to 68.7%.

The key to the turnaround goes back to the front office’s decision to largely stand pat this offseason and trust the core of the roster that it assembled over the past few years. There were no panic moves or splurge signings—the only major-league contracts Minnesota gave out in free agency were one-year deals to outfielder Harrison Bader ($6.25 million), relief pitcher Danny Coulombe ($3 million) and first baseman Ty France ($1 million). It was the least amount of money spent in free agency by any team in the AL.

Overall, the players have rewarded management for their faith in them. Minnesota’s strength is its pitching staff. The team has allowed the second-fewest runs in the AL, backed with MLB’s best bullpen by fWAR. Twins relief pitchers have combined for a 3.09 ERA, anchored by lights-out closer Jhoan Duran, who has allowed zero earned runs in 20 of his 23 appearances. Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Louis Varland and Coulombe round out the rest of the impressive relief corps (though the latter just landed on the injured list with a strained forearm).

The bullpen was leaned on heavily throughout Minnesota’s 13-game streak. Ten of the 13 wins were by three runs or fewer, and four were one-run victories. During that stretch, Twins relievers allowed just four earned runs in 45 ⅓ innings, good for an ERA of 0.79.

Minnesota’s bullpen was a strength last year, though, collectively ranking fifth in fWAR. The rotation lagged behind a bit: despite ranking ninth in fWAR, Minnesota starters ranked 22nd in ERA (4.36) and had the league’s sixth-worst home run rate (1.37 per nine innings). The team’s top three starters—Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober—largely delivered, but the group lacked depth, and didn’t receive any reinforcements ahead of 2025.

While injuries have hit other parts of the roster, the rotation has crucially avoided any major land mines. López, Ryan and Ober have combined for a 2.93 ERA over 153 ⅓ innings to date to shoulder most of the load. Five other starters have put up a 4.22 ERA across 102 ⅓ innings, illustrating just how important it is for the three mainstays to stay healthy. A lengthy stay on the IL for any of the trio could bring about a repeat of last year’s slide.

While lacking in big-name players, Minnesota has built up quality depth among its position players, largely out of necessity. Injuries have long plagued the Twins’ talented trio of star regulars: center fielder Byron Buxton, shortstop Carlos Correa and third baseman Royce Lewis. The latter missed all of April but has played in 14 straight games since debuting on May 6. The results haven’t been there—Lewis is hitting .191 with just three extra-base hits—but his mere presence in the lineup is a positive sign. The same can’t be said for Buxton and Correa, who landed on the concussion IL after colliding with each other last week.

The return timetables for both are unclear, but the Twins have gotten contributions from a whole host of role players this season that allows them to spread the burden of replacing them around. Bader has proven to be a steal, posting a .793 OPS while playing his usual stellar defense. Trevor Larnach, a 2018 first-round pick, has followed up his mini-breakout from last season with seven home runs and a 111 wRC+ in a team-high 200 plate appearances. Ryan Jeffers has a 124 wRC+ while splitting time at catcher and DH, while infield reinforcements Brooks Lee and, more recently, Kody Clemens have filled in gaps for Correa and underperformers Edouard Julien and Willi Castro.

Is Minnesota’s winning formula sustainable? While so many contributions have come from the margins, there aren’t many that scream “flukish.” Bader’s bat will likely regress some, and Clemens shouldn’t be counted on to be an everyday contributor long-term. The eventual returns of Buxton and Correa will provide reinforcements.

On the pitching side, the Twins are trusting one of their top prospects Zebby Matthews with a rotation spot, and David Festa (currently in Triple A) shouldn’t be too far behind. In the meantime, Chris Paddack will continue to get chances, with his 3.98 ERA supported by a rickety 4.64 FIP. While most of Minnesota’s top prospects in the upper minors are position players, the pitching staff is an area that appears most in need of some help via a midseason trade.

The Twins can put themselves in a buyer’s position by keeping their winning ways rolling. They might not win 13 in a row again, and that’s O.K. As September’s collapse and this offseason showed, sometimes treading water is enough.

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