Saquon Barkley A Fantasy Football Bust? Here's 10 Bold (And Wild) Predictions For 2025

Baker Mayfield will finish fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks.

Rico Dowdle will score more fantasy points than Kenneth Walker III.

Brian Thomas Jr. will score more fantasy points than CeeDee Lamb.

A rookie will lead all tight ends in fantasy scoring for the second straight year.

If you made any of these bold predictions before the 2024 NFL season, you would have been laughed at, heckled, called a bunch of names and probably fitted for a straitjacket.

You also would have been right.

Weird stuff happens in the NFL all the time. Predicting it can be difficult, however, because these wild oddities aren’t really predictable based on the reality of the situation. There was no reason to think C.J. Stroud would be a dud (although I did have him in this column last year), and no one in their right mind would have said Thomas Jr. would outscore the great Lamb.

So, as Michael Keaton said to Jack Nicholson in the 1989 Batman, “let's get nuts” with 10 bold and maybe crazy predictions that could come true in 2025.

Lamar Jackson will see a 100-point decline compared to 2024:  Jackson is coming off the best fantasy season of all time, so regression is coming … it’s just a matter of how much. In the 2023 season, Jackson averaged 20.7 points (or around five fewer points than last year). I think that’s a reasonable total to expect this season, and it still keeps Jackson in the top five. However, it’s not the same level of elite fantasy production he finished with in 2024.

J.J. McCarthy will finish as a top-12 fantasy football quarterback: McCarthy is in a great spot to succeed in coach Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense. Kirk Cousins was a regular in the top-12 during his time in Minnesota, and NFL draft dud Sam Darnold became a fantasy stud in his lone season playing in this system. McCarthy will no doubt endure some growing pains in his first year as a starter, but he has big-time upside this season.

Saquon Barkley will be a huge fantasy football disappointment: I have written multiple articles about why Barkley is likely to see regression after his monumental 2024 season, so don’t be surprised if it comes to fruition. Whether it’s his heavy workload from a year ago, natural statistical regression or one of the “curses” that are going against him, there’s at least some cause for concern. Don’t be shocked if he falls out of the top 10 running backs.

Ashton Jeanty will score more PPR points than Jahmyr Gibbs: I absolutely love Jeanty, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that he outscores a fantasy superstar like Gibbs. He’s going to see plenty of touches in Chip Kelly’s offense, and we all know how much new head coach Pete Carroll likes to use one main back. Gibbs is also coming off a magical season with 20 touchdowns, and history shows he’ll very likely experience some regression.

Christian McCaffrey won’t average more than 15 fantasy points: All the reports about CMC have been positive this offseason, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been far less than durable. Since 2020, he’s missed a combined 36 games due to injuries including last season, when he played in just four contests. He also averaged just 12 points in those contests. He’s 29 years old too, so McCaffrey’s best fantasy days are likely behind him.

Ja’Marr Chase will see a 100-point decline compared to 2024: Chase is coming off a huge season that saw him score 17 touchdowns and 403 fantasy points … two stats he will struggle to duplicate. In fact, his 23.7 points-per-game average from last year is 5.5 more than his previous career average. I’m not suggesting that Chase will be a bust (I think that Barkley is a bigger risk for that), but regression is likely coming for the star wide receiver.

Rashee Rice will finish as one of the top-10 fantasy wideouts: Rice had all the looks of a breakout player last season, averaging 7.3 targets and 16.2 fantasy points before injuring his knee. Had he kept up that pace for a full 17 games, Rice would have finished with more fantasy points than Malik Nabers. He’s looked good in OTAs and should have no issues as training camp opens, so I’m thinking Rice could make some real fantasy noise in 2025.

DK Metcalf will score more than 275 fantasy points in 2025: Metcalf is coming off a down season with 191.2 points, but I think he’ll rebound in a big way as the No. 1 target for Aaron Rodgers. Last season, we saw Garrett Wilson (14.8 PPG) and Davante Adams (17.9 PPG) both average more than 14 points per game in New York with Rodgers under center. That same level of production is very realistic for Metcalf as the Steelers true alpha wideout.

Brock Bowers won’t catch more than 80 passes in Year 2: Bowers went off in his rookie year, setting a record for first-year players with 112 receptions. He’s one of just 12 tight ends to hit the 100-catch mark (including Trey McBride last year) since 1966, and the first 10 experienced an average decline of 34 catches the following season. I’m not saying that Bowers will be a dud, but managers should expect him to take a statistical step back.

Evan Engram will finish as a top-five fantasy tight end: Engram had a disappointing 2024 campaign that saw him miss time due to injuries and ultimately get cut by the Jaguars. The good news is that he landed in Denver, where head coach Sean Payton will utilize him in a prominent role. Guys like Jeremy Shockey, Jimmy Graham, Ben Watson, Coby Fleener and Jared Cook all found success in Payton’s system, and I like Engram to be next in line.