Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Manny Machado, Corbin Carroll)

Monday’s Major League Baseball action features a shortened slate, but there are some great matchups to dive into from a betting perspective.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres battle for supremacy in the NL West tonight, while the Chicago Cubs take on Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks face Seattle Mariners – who are battling for a top spot in the AL West.

I’m targeting a few games for some home run props, something we do every day here at SI Betting.

On Monday, I’m eyeing San Diego Padres star Manny Machado as one of my picks, as well as a Boston Red Sox slugger who should thrive in a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the home run bets to consider on June 9. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, June 9

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+475)
• Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+320)
• Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+475)

This season, Wilyer Abreu has been solid for Boston, hitting 13 home runs while posting a .245/.321/.471 slash line.

Most of Abreu’s success has come against right-handed pitching, as he’s hitting .254 with all 13 of his homers against righties. Not only that, but Abreu has an OPS of .828 against righties compared to .550 against lefties.

On Monday, he has a great matchup against Rays righty Shane Baz, who has given up 13 homers in 12 appearances in the 2025 season. Baz enters this outing with a 4.96 ERA and 5.01 FIP, allowing a homer in every outing (seven total) since the start of May.

In his career against Baz, Abreu is 2-for-6 with a walk. At nearly 5/1 odds, he’s worth a look on Monday night. 

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Arizona Diamondbacks star Corbin Carroll already has 18 homers in the 2025 season, and he’s been red hot as of late, hitting .333 with a pair of homers over the last week (five games).

On Monday, Carroll has a solid matchup against Seattle Mariners righty Emerson Hancock. The youngster has given up nine homers in 10 appearances this season, posting a 5.19 ERA.

This sets up well for Carroll, who has dominated against right-handed pitching in 2025. He’s hitting .270 with a .997 OPS against righties, smacking 15 of his 18 homers against them.

If Hancock continues to struggle, Carroll is one of many D-Backs to consider in this market on Monday.

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+390)

There may not be a hotter hitter in the National League than Manny Machado right now, and he’s brought a power surge with him during this streak.

Over the last seven days (seven games), Machado is hitting .393 with three homers and 1.166 OPS. He’s picked up 11 hits over that stretch, pushing his season average to .318.

Machado now has 10 homers in the 2025 season, and he has a familiar matchup against Dodgers righty Dustin May on Monday.

This season, May has allowed eight homers in 11 starts, but he’s given up at least one homer in six straight starts dating back to the beginning of May. 

In his career against the Dodgers righty, Machado is hitting .250 (7-for-28) with two homers, one double and four runs batted in. Given how hot Machado has been at the dish, I think he thrives in a familiar matchup on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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